美就业报告远优预期 市场忧升息!

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最新就业报告与市场趋势

美国最新的就业报告显示新增职位远超过市场的预期,引发市场忧虑联准会会以此为理由加速升息,导致市场下跌。在开盘的时候标普500 就下跌了接近1%,虽然之后上升一度接近平盘,但是后继乏力


相关就业数据彼此不一致

从经济基本面来看,强劲的就业报告当然是件好事,但我们也不能忽略其实还有其他与就业相关的数据彼此之间传达了不一致的一个讯息。例如首次申请失业救济的人数,自3月的低点以来已经增加了近10万人,而6月的职位空缺也创下了自2020年4月以来的最大跌幅。所以关于就业的数据还是需要长期审慎的一个观察。


好消息会导致联准会持续升息吗?

对于经济上的好消息会导致联准会加速升息反而是坏消息的这种想法,我们认为,联准会在看到物价实际受到控制之前调整政策的机率不高,所以不需要过度重视这种新闻媒体帮市场走势找理由的一个说法。


之前有超买现象  未来或会拉回整理

从市场的角度来看,短期有超买的迹象,未来可能会拉回整理,建议投资人事先做好心理准备。


明日活动

1

美国股市周三收盘时大幅收涨,纳斯达克综合指数(Nasdaq Composite Index)重回牛市,结束了金融危机以来最长的纳斯达克熊市。

2

几个月来首份疲软的消费者通胀报告是推动因素,这促使投资者押注价格趋势走软将使美联储(Federal Reserve)放慢加息步伐。在2022年的大部分时间里,加息行动一直令市场感到不安。

3

道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上涨535点,至33309点,涨幅1.6%。标准普尔500指数上涨88点,至4210点,涨幅2.1%。纳斯达克指数上涨361点,至12854点,涨幅2.9%,结束了自2008年以来持续时间最长的熊市(较近期高点下跌20%)。牛市标志着从近期低点上涨20%或更多。

4

CPI数据显示,年化通胀率小幅回落至8.5%,上述股票指数随之上涨。这一数字仍接近40年来的高点,但目前即便是轻微的宽松政策也足以刺激股市上涨。

(Source WSJ)

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